Housing Challenges of “Silver Tsunami” of Seniors Expected to Hit Most Communities

In a study that provides key insights for housing leaders nationwide, researchers in Indiana recently released an in-depth study detailing the “silver tsunami” of senior Hoosiers in need of housing modified for age-related needs.

“It’s a tsunami,” explained Jill Terlep, an analyst with MMA, Inc. who with Jennifer Atkinson, principal analyst, co-founder, and partner with MMA, co-authored the report Aging in Indiana: The Challenge of the Silver Tsunami.

“It’s going to hit all of us and every single town,” Terlep added during a presentation on the study given at the National Council of Housing Market Analysts Annual Meeting in September.

Atkinson and Terlep spent months gathering data for the study that the Indiana Housing & Community Development Authority and the Indiana Family and Social Services Agency commissioned.

“We needed to add to the body of knowledge on senior housing,” Atkinson explained.

Quantifying the Need for Senior Housing
The study states that from 2010 to 2028, the population of seniors aged 65 to 74 years, Baby Boomers, will have grown by more than 96 percent nationwide, and in Indiana, the increase is 85 percent. Those seniors and others over 74 need housing that will accommodate their needs specific to aging, such as ramps leading into the home, grab-bars in bathrooms or nursing services at apartment communities.

The researchers said that before they could document the need for senior housing in Indiana, they needed to quantify the senior housing that exists.

“Supply is a big part of figuring out demand,” explained Atkinson.

Researchers worked with Area Agencies on Aging (AAAs) to understand the home modifications needed for owner-occupied housing in the state. They were also able to develop a snapshot of the senior housing available in Indiana by conducting an in-depth survey of all 92 counties and reaching out to all properties to confirm size and occupancy. They found 721 independent properties with 45,867 units for seniors. They also found 752 licensed properties with 80,264 beds for seniors.

In some cases, they uncovered counties with fewer than one senior housing rental unit per ten senior renter households. They dubbed those areas Age-Restricted Housing Deserts. Some 19 Indiana counties fit the definition of Age-Restricted Housing Deserts.

They also found substantial demand for all types of senior housing, especially affordable senior housing. Only one subsidized unit exists for every four needed, creating a projected shortfall of almost 58,560 subsidized units in 2028. Only one Low Income Housing Tax Credit unit exists for every five needed. The shortfall by 2028 for LIHTC senior housing in Indiana is pegged at 54,630 units. For market-rate housing, only one unit exists per ten units needed of housing. The projected shortfall for market-rate senior rental housing in 2028 is 152,550 units in Indiana.

“There is substantial demand for all types of rental senior housing,” said Atkinson “They have a low inventory of affordable housing and a low inventory of accessible housing.”

Creativity Shown by Some Housing Providers
Researchers also found properties that were labeled assisted living but were not licensed by the state. Those properties offered assistance with laundry, meals and transportation. In some, third-party providers came to the properties to administer licensed services.

Atkinson said they found “creativity in some non-licensed senior properties.” She described a LIHTC property in southern Indiana that brought in services for seniors, such as diabetes screening by nurse practitioners.

“They figured out that’s what their residents needed,” she said.

Atkinson said one of the surprises of the study was finding a “few pockets of the state where people had a huge passion for senior housing.”

“One county decided to lean into it.”

Through a phone survey of Hoosier homeowners aged 55 and over, researchers learned that 95 percent of those surveyed said that it was important for them to stay in their homes as long as possible. This percentage held firm regardless of whether the homeowner lived in a rural or urban setting.

“Indiana Hoosiers say they want to age in place,” said Terlep.

Study Impacts Policy
While the majority of seniors surveyed said they want to age in place, researchers found that many of those seniors’ homes need modifications for them to stay living there. Only 20 percent of the surveyed seniors lived in homes with zero-step entry, the name given for an entrance that does not require stepping up into the home. About 80 percent of the homes had a main floor bedroom and about 85 percent of the homes had main floor bathrooms, both critical elements for seniors to age in place.

The state of Indiana pays for modifications of homes for income-qualified seniors, such as building ramps for access into the house or grab bars in bathrooms. State law requires that the state hire contractors who provide the lowest bid. MMA researchers found that the low bid requirement unintentionally led to some seniors being sent to assisted living communities for several months—which the state must pay for—while they waited for the ramp or other accommodation to be completed. The long wait occurred more frequently with the lowest bidding companies that the state was obligated to contract with.

“Thousands of dollars were spent (for assisted living during the waiting period) to save $250,” explained Terlep.

When Atkinson and Terlep presented their findings on the true cost of the lowest bids, state leaders decided to work to change the requirement so they would not be obligated to go with the lowest bid.

“I did not expect to impact policy changes so quickly,” said Atkinson.

Methodology
The researchers gathered their data for home modifications needed for aging in place by conducting interviews with the directors of the 16 Area on Aging agencies in the state. They also conducted phone interviews with seniors in the state. They developed their questions by looking at studies on seniors conducted by AARP, Stanford and UCLA. Most of their questions were adapted from the National Poll on Healthy Aging conducted by the University of Michigan’s Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation. The researchers emailed researchers at the institute and asked permission to use modified versions of the questions.

“I am an evangelist on surveys now,” Terlep added. “I see what they can do.”

Listen to the full presentation at NH&RA’s On-Demand Learning Center.